For nearly two decades, I provided sports analysis to a private group of sports bettors and made a fortune. Not a little one, but a rather large one. My compensation was tied to the performance of their bets, but like so many others that go out on their own, I wanted more than the 20% I was receiving. In 2016, my non-compete agreement expired, and I began offering my advisory services to the public. It’s the best of both worlds. First, my team and I make money on our in-house bets. Second, we trade for bettors that don’t have the time to place their wagers. And finally, I can monetize the information through selling my advice.
Let me first start by telling you that it is impossible for one a single person to invest the kind of analysis your money deserves into every game, and every sport. This process is necessary to uncovered edges. There are no short-cuts to winning in sports betting. The notion that one service can provide investment-worthy advice on multiple-sports every single day is patently ludicrous.
We work 12 months a year, and our only focus is MLB. That’s it folks.
Ultimately, players want (and deserve) to have the confidence of knowing their service has devoted a significant amount of thought before releasing betting advice. I can’t think of a greater lapse in financial and ethical responsibility than for a sports service to send out picks not supported by analysis. I wager every single pick that I release, and do so, with large sums of money.
If you’ve been betting sports for any amount of time, you know some of the obstacles facing players, but have you ever taken a look at the science and math behind sports betting and why it’s so hard to win?
We’ve been at this for a very long time, and have provided you a guided tour. It’s the reason why players lose consistently, and why traditional handicappers will never be able to solve the problem of losing for you. Indeed, it takes true professionals, and specialists like us if you want to beat the bookmakers.
Over the next five minutes, you will at the very minimum learn how you can avoid more betting losses.
Most of you are not going to going to have the math and engineering background that I have, (if you do, you will appreciate this), but let me be clear about this point: odds, numbers, and probabilities are scientific in nature. A bookmaker doesn’t know what any of this mean, and he doesn’t have to. Just like 98% of those placing bets tonight have no idea.
Here is the mathematical visualization of what you are up against:
Fig. 1. A typical sports betting setting for a game with n outcomes, displaying bookmaker’s probabilistic estimates Pb and player’s estimates Pp, both distanced from the true distribution Pr and from each other.
On a cold afternoon in January, I spent the afternoon searching online to research just how many “expert” handicappers were online. I must confess I found the process to be richly rewarding. I was at times surprised, shocked, and just when I thought I had seen it all, I was treated to more surprises
Do players really believe this hype?
Sadly, many do.
If you are just betting for kicks, and entertainment, then there’s nothing wrong with the “Platinum Power Passes”, and my favorite, “Lock of the Decade”, but if you are betting for a return on your money, you must avoid these outfits.
This is a math-based business. It’s financial engineering. It’s statistics. It’s probabilities. It’s predictive modeling. It’s very hard work. It’s optimizing strategies for maximum returns.
Ever heard of the Kelly criterion, or seen it in action?
Without disparaging the market “experts”, we all know that none have such familiarity, working knowledge, or the skill to undertake this kind of analysis.
Most players lack any sort of bankroll discipline or money-management. It is also unlikely they understand Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory, Risk Management Practices, or Drawdown constraints. Without a sound, strategic plan for money management in place bankrolls tend to get eaten up quickly.
Does this look foreign to you?
“Every bet you make deserves this level of analysis, scrutiny, and careful consideration of every detail that make for a sound investment.”
Picks are delivered over our SMS Texting Service. After purchase you are automatically enrolled in the system, and will begin receiving service. No “call-in to verify your account” or the like, it is an automated system.
Good question. Let’s go through a example of a pick you would receive:
Every pick has a Rating Level, and includes the Rotation and Team information so you can locate it easily in your book. Rotation number is provided so you can tell which game it is for, in the case of a double-header.
We also include the Consensus Odds (at the time of release), so you can see if the line has changed since we released the information.
All clients receive a detailed money-management guide, as well as the option to schedule a one-on-one onboarding call with one of our specialists to walk through your objectives and risk profile.
I realize that other services offer picks on a daily, weekly, and other shorter time frames, but these are designed for gamblers, not investors. The minimum I want you to evaluate my service on is 30 days. I’m pleased to report that in 2021 season, 82% of customers renewed for an additional 30 days, or purchased the seasonal membership. My client turn-over/attrition is less than 7%.
Losses. Frustration. More losses. And even more frustration. Baseball is for scientific bettors, and as explained above, unless you have a command of high-level statistics, probabilities, and databases to perform predictive modeling, you will lose. This is not a reflection on you as a bettor or as a person, it is just a statistical reality that I have seen play out for decades.
Consistent income from the MLB betting markets. No more looking for other sources, no more chasing, and no more restless nights wondering why you are “doomed” or “cursed”. You are disciplined, sharp, and the money is the proof.